Japan's VOD market size is 674.0 billion yen (2025, +13.6%), estimated to be 895.3 billion yen by 2030
GEM Partners has estimated the 2025 video streaming (VOD) market size and projected its growth through 2030 under three scenarios: base, optimistic, and pessimistic. This article reviews the domestic VOD market trends from 2021 and reveals the base scenario forecast for 2030.
Related article： Japan's subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) market in 2025: estimated at over 600 billion yen, Netflix further expands its share, remaining in first place for the seventh consecutive years
In 2025, Japan's VOD market is estimated to reach 674.0 billion yen (+13.6% YoY), recording a double-digit growth rate for the first time in three years
The overall domestic market for Video-On-Demand (VOD) services (the sum of "Subscription Video On Demand [SVOD]," "Transactional Video On Demand [TVOD]," and "Electronic Sell Through [EST]") in 2025 is estimated to be 674.0 billion yen, up 13.6% from the previous year. This value is an estimate bssed on the amount paid by consumers to these video streaming service providers for one year and does not include advertising revenue.
While the market's growth pace had been showing a slowing trend year by year since 2021, remaining at +3.3% YoY in 2024, it recorded a high growth rate in 2025. Two major factors significantly contributed to this background: "price revisions" by major services such as Netflix and Prime Video, and the "expansion of total users" driven by an increase in the number of services used per person.
The market size in 2030 is expected to reach 895.3 billion yen
GEM Partners projects the growth speed of the VOD market as a whole through 2030 under three scenarios: "base," "optimistic," and "pessimistic." These projections are based on the results of a consumer survey conducted by our company, the past VOD penetration in Japan and the United States, and past market trends and growth rates.
The forecasted 2030 value in the chart represents the "base" scenario. This scenario assumes that after 2026, the gradual increase in the total number of users due to the concurrent use of multiple services, as well as a unit price increase in an approximately two-year cycle, will continue. Based on this assumption, the market is projected to expand to 895.3 billion yen by 2030.
The DVD/BD market is projected to continue its shrinking trend; however, the VOD market is expected to grow at a faster pace than the decline. As a result, the total video market size, including both DVD/BD and VOD, is anticipated to maintain an expansionary trend toward 2030.
The product report estimates the market size forecast to 2030 for the video distribution market as a whole, as well as by "Subscription Video On Demand (SVOD)," "Transactional Video On Demand (TVOD)," and "Electronic Sell Through (EST)," with "base," "optimistic," and "pessimistic" scenarios. This annual report also includes the above estimation logic detailed, so readers can confirm the estimation method.